abhishek ( @abhishec_s ) Twitter Profile

abhishec_s

abhishek

Investing | Productivity | Happiness. |

Joined on 8 October, 2015

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Quoted @dspmf

Please welcome @abhishec_s who joined us recently as Assistant Vice President - Equities.
Cheers Abhishek, continue to #DoGoodBeGood :)

Update:

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Replace “writer” with “investor”.

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Replying to @abhishec_s: The lure of easy & quick riches is just too tempting to resist. It’s a tragedy when someone who doesn’t have even 6 month o…

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Capabilities are not static. Advantages not permanent.

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The sky is always bluer and the grass always greener in a conference room.

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A macro trader might increase exposure to Nifty & end up buying the Growth stocks which have higher weightage in the Index.

So the more expensive keep getting more expensive even when the earnings is coming from the value bucket.

Some strange behaviour.

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Value (quantitative) bucket has higher weightage in Nifty50 earnings.

What this implies (somewhat, it's not clean) is if the commodity and export bucket deliver on earnings growth then overall PE of Nifty comes down.

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Infy quarterly earnings release: 222 pages.

Berkshire 10k: 152. 10Q: 55.

You have to read a lot as an investor. But it increasingly seems you just can’t read enough.

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3. Over-reliance on data: “Numbers represent a surface facade of a complex process.

Beneath lies a chain of issues that impact the these numbers-problem definition, research design, how questions are asked, and even the analytic skills of those who interpret them.”

10/10

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Lessons:

1. Correctly define the problem: Coke’s problem was lazy advertising, losing young consumers to Pepsi’s “cooler” ads.

2. How you ask a question matter: Sip test is no proxy for real world usage

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New Coke was a disaster. The consumer backlash was unprecedented.

Coke did one thing right in this whole episode. They had a contingency plan. They had a marketing plan ready to bring back the old Coke. It was a resounding success.

8/

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Coke ignore the focused group data where most groups came to the conclusion that they do not want any tampering with an iconic brand with which they had positive affiliations for decades.

Quantitative data won over qualitative insights.

7/

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Coke began thinking the unthinkable — changing the formulation. Coke developed a sweeter receipt which showed significant promise in similar sip tests.

Coke management (Don Keough, no less) was justifiable elated.

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Pepsi was the sweeter product & this was the reason for the consumer preference in taste tests.

But consumers don’t sip cola. They gulp it in huge quantities. The preference in “testing environment” is not same as a better product.

Pepsi now knew this. Coke didn’t

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Pepsi went to malls around the country and invited people for blind taste test between Coke and Pepsi. The results were surprising.

People picked Pepsi over Coke by a significant margin.

This became the basis of the Pepsi Challenge ad campaign.

3/

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Coke had twice as many vending machine, dominated fountain, had more shelf space, spent more on advertising — the consensus was there was no reason why Coke should be losing share.

Except taste.

4/

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In 1980s Coke started losing market share to Pepsi. In supermarkets Pepsi’s share surged passed Coke’s by 2%. That’s $1 BN in sales.

The ‘Pepsi Challenge’ was considered to be the primary reason for this turn of events.

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Pepsi Challenge & New Coke

Why data can be correct yet misleading.

👇

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The lure of easy & quick riches is just too tempting to resist. It’s a tragedy when someone who doesn’t have even 6 month of his expenses in savings loses about half of it in penny stocks (a close friend of mine did).

Please ask yourself why you can do this?

4/10

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My threads on Investing:

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